{"id":3002,"date":"2020-08-10T09:43:23","date_gmt":"2020-08-10T09:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/?p=3002"},"modified":"2020-08-10T09:44:50","modified_gmt":"2020-08-10T09:44:50","slug":"a-new-approach-to-earthquake-early-warning-seismicai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/en\/tech_innovation\/a-new-approach-to-earthquake-early-warning-seismicai\/","title":{"rendered":"A new approach to earthquake early warning: SeismicAi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"A new approach to earthquake early warning: SeismicAi\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/M3Keql92-LM?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>There are\nseveral countries in the world with state-of-the-art earthquake early warning (EEW),\nincluding Mexico, Japan, and, more recently, California. EEW are <a href=\"https:\/\/authors.library.caltech.edu\/16550\/1\/Allen2009p6162Seismol_Res_Lett.pdf\">\u201dreal-time earthquake information\nsystems that have the potential to provide warning prior to significant ground\nshaking.\u201d<\/a> Depending\non the system and the distance to the epicenter, warnings may range from a few\nseconds to roughly a minute, mostly just enough <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43017-020-0028-z\">time<\/a> to move away from the windows or hide under a\ndesk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, in\norder to create a system that effectively predicts earthquakes, saves lives,\nand protects infrastructure while still being affordable, a plethora of factors\nhave to be considered. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seismicai.com\/\">SeismicAi<\/a>, a young Israeli start-up, strives\nto overcome the issues inherent in conventional earthquake forecasting and\nrevolutionize the field of early warning systems (EEWS).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According\nto Alon Ziv, Chief Scientist at SeismicAi and Associate Professor at the\nDepartment of Geophysics at Tel Aviv University, (technically) early warning\nsystems are highly cost-effective and could be implemented with very little\nbudget. \u201cOnce you have an early warning system it can save a lot of money\nbecause whenever there is a moderate to large earthquake happening in or near a\nbig city, the financial damage can be immense, not to mention the human loss in\nsome cases,\u201d says Ziv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSo basically what you need is a real-time\nseismic network (a group of monitoring stations that are working collectively),\na seismic algorithm, and you need a way to disseminate the warning among the\npublic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Ziv, the \u201cone thing\u201d that costs money is the seismic sensor network itself. Those are very expensive complex systems used by Japan and California but are too expensive for many other countries. \u201cOur goal was to come up with a more affordable, more reliable system, and, most importantly, one that can be implemented anywhere in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/earthquakes.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3013\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/earthquakes.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/earthquakes-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/earthquakes-768x576.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><figcaption><em>In order to create a system that effectively predicts earthquakes saves lives and protects infrastructure while still being affordable, a plethora of factors have to be considered. Photo by Smithsonian Magazine<\/em>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Overcoming the problem<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the main problems of nowadays earthquake\nforecasting is that seismic networks are commonly built along the plate\nboundary (the area where two plates from the outer shell of the earth\u2019s crust\ncollide causing earthquakes). However, most earthquakes occur either outside or\non the edge of the seismic network. A majority of earthquakes happen in the\nocean, which is the case, for instance, in South America, Central America,\nIndonesia, and the Philippines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Ziv, most of the advanced systems\nthat you find in places like Japan or California today can estimate the\nlocation of an earthquake and its magnitude and use these parameters to predict\nthe peak motion anywhere in the affected area. However, this is only feasible\nas long as the earthquake occurs inside the network. Therefore, to develop a\nsystem that can be implemented anywhere, the off-network issue needs to be\naddressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe have developed a system that can operate even if the seismic event occurs off-network; A system that works anywhere. Tomorrow, I can deploy it in Canada the next day in Turkey or the Himalayas. That\u2019s what we were looking for,\u201d Ziv says. According to Ziv, SeismicAi addresses this problem by calculating not only the arrival time of the seismic waves but the angle between the measuring station and the epicenter of the earthquake, the \u201cback-azimuth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason why SeismicAi can calculate the\nback-azimuth is that they use a different seismic network layout. Networks in\nother places like Japan and California have more or less uniform spacing\nbetween the seismic sensors. The network Seismic Ai deploys consist of sensor\nclusters, with 4-5 sensors in each site. Each sensor cluster is a seismic\narray.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe seismic waves emitted from an earthquake\narrive at the individual sensors of the array at different times. With the help\nof this time difference, we can calculate the back-azimuth. Once we have\ndetermined the back-azimuth, we can more quickly and more accurately locate the\n&nbsp;earthquake, even if it occurred outside\nof the network, in places where we have deployed only a few sensors,\u201d he\nexplains.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Ziv, the second element in the\nSeismicAi system is the use of a physics-based set of equations that replaces\nthe location-specific empirical relations that are in use in California and\nJapan. Location-specific empirical relations are equations with which experts\nare able to calculate the peak ground motion (acceleration of an earthquake) at\nthe target site. These relations require a lot of data and many years of\nmonitoring, which is not feasible in places where monitoring systems are either\nunavailable or have been deployed very recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe problem with the empirical relations is\ntwo-fold: 1. They are location-specific, and 2. They are not available\neverywhere; for example, most of Asia doesn\u2019t have them. But with SeismicAi,\nyou don\u2019t need them, because we replaced them with a universal physics-based\nset of equations that works everywhere and is readily implementable anywhere,\u201d\nZiv says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cTo summarize, our new system can be implemented anywhere, whereas the systems you have in Japan or California can\u2019t really be adopted in other places due to the enormous costs, the inability to locate off-network earthquakes, and the reliance on location-specific empirical relations. For poorer countries in dire need of early warning systems, the costs are the biggest problem, as the maintenance alone of those systems costs many million dollars,\u201d Ziv stresses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/15392616_db43e7487e_o-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3003\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/15392616_db43e7487e_o-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/15392616_db43e7487e_o-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/15392616_db43e7487e_o-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/15392616_db43e7487e_o-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/15392616_db43e7487e_o-2048x1536.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption><em>The San Andreas Fault in California. Photo by Doc Searls on Flickr.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>SeismicAi in Israel?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe company is still very young, but the\ntechnology is ready, and we hope to become operational this year,\u201d Ziv says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, SeismicAi has pilots in Istanbul, Canada,\nand the Himalayas, and according to Ziv, Canada has now, after roughly four to\nfive months of testing, arrived at a point where they will have to decide if\nthey want to implement the technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Around ten years ago, the Israeli government\ndecided to implement an earthquake early warning system, which is set to become\noperational in 2020. In Israel, the sensors of the networks run along the Dead\nSea fault and the Carmel fault. According to Ziv, however, past earthquake\nobservations in California, which has a similar plate boundary to Israel, in\nboth structure and movement, have shown that earthquakes frequently occur\noutside the plate boundary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe Israeli system is completely reliant on\nthe assumption that the next large earthquake will happen along the Dead Sea\nfault or the Carmel fault. But if there is any tectonic system in the world\nthat resembles the one in Israel, it\u2019s the plate boundary in California. And\nwhat we\u2019ve learned from California over the last 30 years is that many minor\nand major earthquakes do occur outside of that tectonic system in places where\nnobody excepted them,\u201d Ziv says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cMoreover, here in Israel, the political\nboundary is also the plate boundary. That means we don\u2019t have access to the\nseismic network that picks up earthquakes on or outside the plate boundary in\nreal-time in Jordan, Syria, or Lebanon,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;Ziv, who was a member of the committee discussing the implementation of an early warning system a few years ago, recommended that Israel adopt SeismicAi as a second layer to the existing early warning system. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> \u201cI am confident that with the know-how and the technology that we have acquired, we can significantly improve and add to the existing system, which will go into operation this year,\u201d Ziv concludes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This ZAVIT article was also published in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.israel21c.org\/a-revolutionary-new-early-warning-system-for-earthquakes\/\">Israel21c<\/a>&nbsp;on 07\/30\/2020.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are several countries in the world with state-of-the-art earthquake early warning (EEW), including Mexico, Japan, and, more recently, California. &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":182,"featured_media":3007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[15,11],"tags":[],"acf":[],"post-meta-fields":{"_edit_lock":["1597053300:11"],"_edit_last":["11"],"subtitle":["A young Israeli company is aiming to revolutionize earthquake early warning, with a new seismic algorithm and a unique seismic sensor network "],"_subtitle":["field_59d3d36ea7fe1"],"_wpml_media_duplicate":["1"],"_wpml_media_featured":["1"],"_oembed_ceabb23325f3ea06dea0704b718d6813":["<iframe title=\"A new approach to earthquake early warning: SeismicAi\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/M3Keql92-LM?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>"],"_oembed_time_ceabb23325f3ea06dea0704b718d6813":["1597052526"],"_thumbnail_id":["3007"]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3002"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/182"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3002"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3002\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3025,"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3002\/revisions\/3025"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3007"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.zavit.org.il\/intl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}